I’d like to elaborate on my reply to this post:
http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2008/03/1000_true_fans.php
I think this theory is a little bit wrong. I think the principles sound good on paper, but the economics in several of the examples are off. There are certainly some good ideas for self promotion in there, it’s something that a lot of musicians that want to remain independent think about (myself, I tend to think more along the lines of ‘five good fans in every big city’) it’s just a little optimistic in terms of the number of fans you actually need. I understand that Kelly is trying to help people survive in the type of ‘long tail’ economy he believes we should and do live in, but it is VERY hard for a musician to get even his truest fans to spend a hundred dollars a year.
More like twenty or thirty, really, which is the price of a couple of cd’s or dvd’s. Maybe they’ll come to a show if you can afford to get close to where they are. Those ARE true fans. Casual fans buy one of your cd’s and that’s it – for their entire life. Now, obsessed fans may spend a hundred on merchandise a year, but even the most established indie bands with twenty or forty year careers have a limited number of those. They acquired them through years of patience and dedication and one more thing – a type of financial deal known as ‘the front’. As in, ‘I am an agent or producer or record comapny and I will front you some cash so you can make it to the next show/make the next album/whatever, because I believe you will make my money back and then some’. That’s how the business works. I’m sure there are exceptions that prove the rule, but all of those artists got the insurance payed somehow.
Granted, Kelly does say “But in fact the actual number is not critical, because it cannot be determined except by attempting it” which is not really true. I know what it costs to pay a mortgage and the amount listeners will spend on music is a pretty well studied topic.
Another example Kelly uses, about Lawrence Watt Evans, doesn’t work for me either. Evans has been a working writer for something like thirty years, and has had all that time to build a good following of ‘true fans’. In the meantime, as Kelly points out, he had contracts and promotion from great, big, evil, greedy, bloody, top-down, traditional publishing companies. Now, I don’t know his finances and I don’t want to presume, but after thirty years in the business, just the advance he makes from a book that shows up in a store like B&N or Amazon ought to far outstrip what he made selling each chapter for a hundred bucks. It does sound like a good way to publish stuff your publishers don’t want, though. Publishing is still one of the areas in art where the contracts are actually OK. I couldn’t see a writer at this point wanting that to be his writing income unless he has a nice side job.
The ‘thousand fan’ model seems to say ‘make a thousand friends and they will support you’. Outside the world of parent-funded communes and hereditary nobility, and even there it’s an iffy proposition, I just don’t think this works in the real world.
Kevin Kelly updates his own message with information from a working ‘long tail’ artist:
http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2008/04/the_reality_of.php
Other artists chime in, largely pointing out that no one is making a living doing this:
http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2008/04/the_case_agains.php